Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 0.798926 0.917856 1.044666 1.189528 1.350006 1.521913 1.719554
2025-03-02 0.585472 0.736633 0.909228 1.119320 1.366499 1.646410 1.985602
2025-03-09 0.457688 0.628916 0.837585 1.106903 1.441305 1.838755 2.342379
2025-03-16 0.352807 0.531007 0.762993 1.080144 1.494752 2.010261 2.690636
2025-03-23 0.291012 0.478050 0.737177 1.110607 1.621735 2.282732 3.186032
2025-03-30 0.220395 0.399303 0.664683 1.069214 1.649969 2.431624 3.537571
2025-04-06 0.171920 0.343547 0.615731 1.053379 1.710083 2.626589 3.964141
2025-04-13 0.131771 0.292050 0.564416 1.026449 1.750425 2.796602 4.368746
2025-04-20 0.107361 0.262180 0.542442 1.041082 1.852419 3.060228 4.920567
2025-04-27 0.085283 0.230936 0.512554 1.038419 1.926660 3.287911 5.434991
2025-05-04 0.069936 0.209239 0.495836 1.055296 2.032637 3.569482 6.044476
2025-05-11 0.056661 0.188118 0.476248 1.064076 2.125251 3.835713 6.645322
2025-05-18 0.042348 0.160063 0.438639 1.037332 2.159895 4.020953 7.146688
2025-05-25 0.029755 0.130878 0.391878 0.985719 2.145363 4.125761 7.529817
2025-06-01 0.022807 0.114942 0.371323 0.983328 2.219095 4.380828 8.166129
2025-06-08 0.016775 0.098553 0.345537 0.965806 2.262459 4.587114 8.734790
2025-06-15 0.013813 0.091863 0.343169 0.999160 2.406523 4.975862 9.623497
2025-06-22 0.009600 0.076705 0.313406 0.965315 2.414232 5.124812 10.118565
2025-06-29 0.006963 0.066423 0.294595 0.953969 2.465722 5.354382 10.760614
2025-07-06 0.004820 0.056310 0.272915 0.931589 2.491317 5.537153 11.329550
2025-07-13 0.003712 0.051289 0.266501 0.947113 2.598666 5.876701 12.185212
2025-07-20 0.002688 0.045315 0.254679 0.946194 2.669520 6.150596 12.935754
2025-07-27 0.002049 0.041478 0.249614 0.963094 2.781561 6.509059 13.851720